Property Investment Case Study: Argentina (TPI-AR-001)
Introduction:
No data available
Location:
No data available
Economy:
But what about the economy? Three and a half years ago, Argentina was in crisis. The economy was in free fall, banks had closed their doors to investors, the country was going through presidents at the rate of one a week. It was the culmination of 30 years of instability that had seen the economy grow in 14 years and decline in 15, with living standards stuck at the level they were at in 1974.
Today, the feeling among economists in Buenos Aires is that the country is over the worst. Argentina reached agreement with its creditors to restructure $103bn (£54bn) of its debts, more than three years after declaring the biggest sovereign debt default of modern times.
About 75% of the country's bondholders agreed to swap their old debt for new at a loss of up to 70 cents in the dollar - also a record and one that Mr Kirchner (the Prime Minister) called "the biggest haircut in history" for investors.
Argentina declared its default in December 2001 in the midst of economic turmoil that continued through 2002 as the economy virtually collapsed. Since then, it has grown strongly and the stock market has soared by 50%. What was the formula that brought Argentina back to life? A simple one: a competitive exchange rate plus the revival of local consumption. In fact, just the opposite recipe the International Monetary Fund had recommended for the last decade. The government has focused on boosting domestic consumption at the expense of demands of foreign creditors, banks and privatized utilities.
Phoenix-like, the economy has risen from the ashes. After falling by 11% in 2002, gross domestic product grew by almost 9% in 2003 and around 8% in 2004. The government cautiously says expansion will be 4% in 2005, though most of the experts believe Argentina will end up growing at 5%.
Emerging markets that suffered from financial turmoil in the 1990s have all recovered by now. Yet, the country neither received any financial bailout nor advice from the IMF. Abandoning the fixed exchange rate - the peso was pegged to the dollar for a decade - was the first step towards a new economic outlook. Many analysts now believe that the economy had been prisoner of what Professor Paul Krugman once called "A cross of gold": a sour combination of an overvalued peso, fixed exchange rate plus free capital mobility.
Certainly the lower exchange rate helped to stimulate industries, which had been damaged by a strong peso and aggressive, market-orientated reforms in the 1990s. These "market-friendly" policies were bad for jobs, with unemployment hitting a peak of 20% in 2002. The rate is now down to 12.5%.
Minister for the economy Roberto Lavagna is convinced that maintaining a competitive exchange rate will help to boost exports tracking on domestic demand. Some experts say that the increase in Argentina's exports is not sustainable, since it is mainly due to higher world price commodities. However, the scenario is still positive, given the outlook for economies like China and Brazil, which are key partners of Argentina.
Capital is returning to the country. The central bank is trying to maintain a competitive currency level, buying more dollars than one year ago. Today, total reserves amount to a level of almost $20bn, still below the $25bn registered in 2000 but above the $10bn in 2002.
Argentina has attained positive fiscal results after decades during which the country ran huge fiscal deficits, mostly financed by bond issuing. Analysts estimate a fiscal surplus of 5.4% of GDP by the end of this year, a figure above the level of Turkey and Brazil.
Analysts in Argentina are divided about the future. On one side there are those who think the country has enough potential to grow by 5% for the next four or five years by maintaining the current exchange rate and, to some degree, state intervention. On the other hand there are those who think the economy cannot grow faster than 3% during the next few years. They argue that sustaining growth requires structural reforms and restoring relations with international financial markets.
Religious or not, some talk about Argentina's recovery as if a miracle helped more than Rodrigo Rato, the managing director of the IMF. The hand of God replaced the hand of the IMF. There's no cheating this time, however. (The Guardian).
So what does all of this mean? Having made the move from the United Kingdom, taken as a whole, this meant the right move for me and my family. We bought our farm in August of last year and now live in San Rafael, in the Mendoza region of Argentina. During the period August to April of this year we’ve seen our properties value increase by 25%. Interest in the area is increasing all of the time with a general mix of investors and immigrants. Argentina remains a country which is easy to emigrate to. Healthcare and education is of a high standard and people retiring from Europe or America will be astounded as to how far their pension will take them.
Property Market:
No data available
Examples:
Attractions:
No data available
Transport Infrastructure:
No data available
Local Mortgage:
No data available
Inflation:
No data available
Economic Growth:
No data available
Sunshine Days:
No data available
Annual Rainfall:
No data available
Temperatures:
Winter: No data available
Summer: No data available
Property Price Inflation:
No data available
Local Currency:
No data available
Cost of Living Index:
No data available
Income Tax:
No data available
Property Tax:
No data available
Capital Gains Tax:
No data available
Buying and Selling Costs:
No data available
Rental Yields:
No data available
Report Compiled By:
The Property Investor
To download this case study in a handy pdf format use the link below:
Download Case Study TPI-AR-001
Report ref: TPI-AR-001
Date created: 17-01-2006
